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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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